Friday, September 27, 2013

Hulk Hogan's Drawing Power (1984-1990) by Chris Harrington

Hulk Hogan's Drawing Power - excerpt from Wrestlenomics by Chris Harrington (indeedwrestling@gmail.com)

A STUDY ON ATTENDANCE:
In the modern era of WWE, Live Event Gates, that is attendance at WWE House Shows, WWE TV Tapings and WWE PPVs represent about a fifth of their annual net revenue. While $103 million is a significant amount, it reflects a de-emphasis from thirty years ago.

In the 1980s, as had been the model for ages, wrestling was concentrated with packing arenas with proven wrestling draws. You came to see the top feuds in your local venue. Unsurprisingly, live events represented the majority of WWF’s revenue. The advent of Pay-per-view and cable channel television rights fees certainly transformed the landscape. A New York Times Article (creatively titled, “This is not Real”) quotes Dave Meltzer estimating TitanSports at $150 million by 1989.  It was during the 80s that WWF worked hard to diversify their revenue streams.  Yet, live event revenues were still the major driver going into the 90s which contrasts heavily with today when almost half of today’s net revenue stream (PPV Revenue, $84M ~17% and TV Rights Fees $139.5M ~29%) aren’t derived from the nightly box office gate.

In the 1980s, it was a war.  WWF was like a bull in a china shop, going town to town using their syndicated television model and offering to buy time from the local stations to displace the existing regional wrestling products.  But it wasn’t enough to just steal television.  The focus was promoting local gates and running a lot of shows – in the 80s, WWF ran almost twice as many shows as WWE does today.  However, while today’s revenue model contains complex interactions of domestic & international audiences, television contracts, PPV buys, merchandise sales & licensing, running house shows (non-televised live events) is a significant portion of income, and represents the majority of shows they hold each year.

As it was in the beginning, so it shall be evermore. WWE is still running live events town to town. Yet, today’s show is less and less about individual characters, and more about selling the entire show.

I. HULK HOGAN IS RUNNIN’ WILD.

Let us consider the era of Hulkamania:

In January 1984, Hulk Hogan dethrones the recently crowned Iron Sheik and becomes WWF World Champion.  He reigns for four years (1984-1988) until The Main Event angle involving twin Hebners, Andre the Giant, Million Dollar Man and an enormous television audience.  The title does eventually move to Randy Savage at Wrestlemania IV and Hogan takes some time off in 1988 to shoot the cinematic masterpiece No Holds Barred.  He returns to win the title at Wrestlemania V and finally loses passes the torch to The Ultimate Warrior at Toronto’s Wrestlemania VI. From 1984 to 1990, Hogan was top of the WWF pecking order.

For seven years, Hogan reigned on top.  In a televised era, that’s a long time to keep a character fresh, and certainly there were periods of backlash against Hogan. However, to many fans that came of age, until the taint of the steroid trials really ruined the luster of professional wrestling (or “Sports Entertainment”, a phrase that Steve Planamenta, Titan's media coordinator was using in the 80s), Hulk Hogan represented the epitome of the WWF’s vision of what a wrestler should look like and fans gobbled it up.
Average Non-Exceptional Major Show* Attendance with and without Hulk Hogan


This chart is looking at monthly average live WWF event attendance for shows which did and did not have Hulk Hogan wrestling on them. (*) Since there are some major events which “spiked” attendance, those have been removed – so this chart does not include Madison Square Garden, any PPVs (i.e. no Wrestlemanias), State Fairs, joint tours with other companies (i.e. New Japan/WWF in 1985) or exceptional events like Toronto’s aptly named “The Big Event” which drew over 60,000 people to CNE Stadium in August 1986.

There’s was a lot more events than what I’ve tallied here.  When WWF was running molten hot in the 80s, they often ran multiple shows throughout the day, sometimes ferrying top talent on private jets so could advertise proven drawing card (like Hogan) in many places at once.  For instance, on December 26 1988, WWF ran six shows in a single day – one crew on the West Coast (San Francisco and Sacramento with Bret Hart, Bushwhackers, Dusty Rhodes, Big Bossman, Mr. Perfect and Hulk Hogan), one crew on the East Coast (Landover Maryland and Hershey PA – with Tito Santana, Honkytonk Man, Andre the Giant, Jake Roberts, Ted DiBiase, Demolition, Roddy Piper and Rick Rude) and third crew (Auburn Hills Michigan and Toronto – with Jim Neidhart, the Rockers, Earthquake, Greg Valentine, Randy Savage, Jim Duggan and the Ultimate Warrior).  Thanksgiving and Christmastime were enormous touring dates for professional wrestling in the 1980s.

During this national expansion and boom period, WWF held 600-700 cards a year; this dataset is only drawing on about a quarter of the cards which had attendance figures available.  To put into perspective, today’s WWE usually runs north of 300 cards a year (utilizing two touring rosters) and in the mid-90s through the Attitude Era, WWF was running only around 250 cards annually.

Here’s a detailed look at the cards with and without Hulk Hogan by month from 1984-1990.




This data strongly suggests that within the sampled events, the wrestling cards with Hulk Hogan performing on them would have twice the attendance of those that did not have him.

Does this imply analysis that Hulk Hogan was effectively responsible for the additional five thousand people per event? Was he that big of a draw – right from the get-go? 

WWF could run many shows in a single night, and Hogan was only on some of them.  They ran at different times (matinee/evenings), cities of varying sizes, and with different levels of local promotion, historical marketplace establishment (WWF was fighting a promotional war with the NWA and moving into new territories) and many other factors.  Does this truly isolate Hulk Hogan’s role in being an effective draw?

Clearly, not every venue or arena is comparable.  Consider Western/Central New York:

·         Buffalo: War Memorial Auditorium (capacity over 10,000)
·         Rochester: War Memorial (capacity 8,000)
·         Binghamton: Broome County Arena (capacity 6,500)
·         Syracuse: War Memorial (capacity 6,000)
·         Utica: Memorial Auditorium (capacity 5,000)
·         Poughkeepsie: Mid-Hudson Civic Center (capacity 3,000)
·         Ithaca: Ben Light Gymnasium (capacity 1,500)

Throughout the late-80s, the largest venues – Buffalo, Rochester, Binghamton, Syracuse - all hosted WWF cards that included Hulk Hogan wrestling.  Meanwhile, Hogan rarely, if ever, appeared at the smaller venues.  Instead, those audiences were treated to main events such as The Rockers versus the Conquistadors (Ithaca – Sept 25, 1988) or Ron Bass against Hillbilly Jim (Utica – August 22, 1988).

In those days, WWF would send out several crews on the road. Each would hit towns of various sizes.  Hogan, obviously, worked the A-tour.  During this 1984 to 1990 timeframe, Hogan wrestled in the major cities dozens of times - Philadelphia, Chicago, St. Louis, New York City, Los Angeles, Boston, Toronto, Minneapolis, Baltimore, Houston. Meanwhile, smaller cities like Scranton (PA), Davenport (Iowa), Struthers (OH), Lansing (Michigan), Bangor (Maine), Colorado Springs (CO), Odessa (TX) had several WWF shows, but were all on the alternate, non-Hogan circuit.

So, given that Hulk Hogan worked the major cities, and the other guys worked in the towns that were left, how much credit does Hogan deserve?  It wasn’t an insignificant amount – rather, an impressive increase of nearly 5,000 additional people on average for the shows which he wrestled on. Keep in mind, this five thousand number already excludes pay-per-views or special shows that were jointly promoted.

Let’s look at some of the large cities which had held many WWF shows 1984-1990 (excludes shows such as PPVs, Joint Promoted shows) –shows with attendance numbers available counted:



On average, the difference of having Hulk Hogan wrestling was almost +45%, 3,700 more people.  That’s certainly a significant amount.
However, you can see that the impact was not universal – WWF always brought the hot feuds to Madison Square Garden so the occasions where Hulk Hogan didn’t work, attendance didn’t necessarily plummet.  In the Midwest in cities like Milwaukee and Minneapolis where Hogan had been a large draw for AWA, Hogan had a huge impact.  He did have an stronger impact on West Coast numbers, LA and Oakland. He wasn’t quite as huge in established non-WWF wrestling cities like Houston or Montreal (with their own local heroes and wrestling cultures) or other Midwestern markets like Denver or St. Louis.

In those days Vince McMahon was running a promotional war and Hulk Hogan was the face of that promotional behemoth that was the World Wrestling Federation.

Tuesday, September 24, 2013

WWWF/WWF/WWE Draws 1963-2013

I also did a bunch of regressions looking at top wrestlers by 5 year periods 1963-2013 for WWF/WWE for the top talent; here's the initial analysis suggested:

HIGHLY EFFECTIVE DRAWS (high coefficient, low p-value)
Modern Era / low p-value (statistically relevent)
1989-1993.. Hulk Hogan (+5826)
1984-1988.. Hulk Hogan (+5470)
1999-2003.. The Rock (+4782)
1999-2003.. Triple H (+3359)
1994-1998.. The Rock (+3259)
2004-2008.. Umaga (+3217)
2004-2008.. The Undertaker (+3211)
2009-2013.. Randy Orton (+3135)
1984-1988.. Andre the Giant (+3037)
2004-2008.. John Cena (+2892)
1984-1988.. Roddy Piper (+2881)
1989-1993.. Rick Rude (+2734)
2009-2013.. Dolph Ziggler (+2342)
1994-1998.. Steve Austin (+2293)
2009-2013.. Chris Jericho (+2288)
1999-2003.. Steve Austin (+2251)
2004-2008.. Shawn Michaels (+2101)
1989-1993.. Randy Savage (+2094)
2009-2013.. The Big Show (+2066)
1999-2003.. Rob Van Dam (+2056)
1999-2003.. Chris Benoit (+2048)
1984-1988.. Randy Savage (+2028)
1989-1993.. Ultimate Warrior (+2001)
2004-2008.. Batista (+2000)
2009-2013.. John Cena (+1988)
1984-1988.. Iron Sheik (+1933)
2004-2008.. Mark Henry (+1835)
1999-2003.. Chris Jericho (+1749)
1989-1993.. Roddy Piper (+1740)
1999-2003.. Kurt Angle (+1719)
1984-1988.. Paul Orndorff (+1701)
1994-1998.. Mick Foley (+1677)
1984-1988.. King Kong Bundy (+1664)
1994-1998.. The Undertaker (+1641)
1989-1993.. The Undertaker (+1638)

HIGHLY EFFECTIVE DRAWS (high coefficient, low p-value)
Historic Era / low p-value (statistically relevant)
1969-1973.. Bruno Sammartino (+10773)
1974-1978.. Bruno Sammartino (+9497)
1974-1978.. Bob Backlund (+8118)
1963-1968.. Buddy Rogers (+7369)
1979-1983.. Andre the Giant (+5778)
1979-1983.. Hulk Hogan (+5067)
1979-1983.. Bob Backlund (+4965)
1963-1968.. Bruno Sammartino (+3795)
1979-1983.. Pedro Morales (+3295)
1969-1973.. Victor Rivera (+3220)
1969-1973.. Chief Jay Strongbow (+2975)
1974-1978.. Ivan Putski (+2880)
1979-1983.. Ivan Putski (+2813)
1979-1983.. Don Muraco (+2481)
1969-1973.. Pedro Morales (+2382)
1979-1983.. Tony Atlas (+1886)

HIGHLY EFFECTIVE DRAWS (high coefficient, low p-value)
Historic Era / high p-value (statistically questionable)
1969-1973.. The Sheik (+3182)
1969-1973.. Tarzan Tyler (+3009)
1969-1973.. Tony Garea (+2444)
1969-1973.. Mr Fuji (+2235)
1974-1978.. Jimmy Valiant (+2188)
1963-1968.. Bobo Brazil (+2178)
1963-1968.. Dr Jerry Graham (+1965)
1974-1978.. Superstar Billy Graham (+1870)
1963-1968.. Bill Miller (+1660)
1963-1968.. Hans Mortier (+1646)
1974-1978.. Haystacks Calhoun (+1620)
1963-1968.. Gorilla Monsoon (+1576)

MODERATELY EFFECTIVE DRAWS
Modern Era / low p-value
1994-1998.. Glen Jacobs (+1560)
1989-1993.. Bret Hart (+1517)
2009-2013.. Rey Mysterio Jr (+1492)
2004-2008.. CM Punk (+1448)
1984-1988.. Greg Valentine (+1444)
1984-1988.. Ricky Steamboat (+1421)
1984-1988.. Junkyard Dog (+1403)
2004-2008.. Triple H (+1386)
2004-2008.. Chris Jericho (+1369)
1999-2003.. Glen Jacobs (+1320)
1984-1988.. Ted Dibiase (+1296)
1994-1998.. Yokozuna (+1287)
1994-1998.. Scott Hall (+1276)
2009-2013.. Edge (+1219)
2009-2013.. Glen Jacobs (+1205)
1999-2003.. Sean Waltman (+1182)
2004-2008.. Randy Orton (+1156)
1994-1998.. Kevin Nash (+1135)
1994-1998.. Bret Hart (+1106)
1994-1998.. Vader (+1002)
1984-1988.. Davey Boy Smith (+986)
1989-1993.. Curt Hennig (+959)
1984-1988.. Honkytonk Man (+959)
1989-1993.. John Tenta (+915)
1994-1998.. Shawn Michaels (+899)
2004-2008.. Rey Mysterio Jr (+878)
1984-1988.. Big John Studd (+847)
1989-1993.. Yokozuna (+814)

MODERATELY EFFECTIVE DRAWS
Modern Era / high p-value
1999-2003.. Mick Foley (+1216)
2009-2013.. Mike Mizanin (+1050)
2009-2013.. Mark Henry (+914)
1999-2003.. The Undertaker (+895)
2009-2013.. Alberto Del Rio (+848)
2009-2013.. CM Punk (+827)
2004-2008.. JBL (+807)

MODERATELY EFFECTIVE DRAWS 
Historic Era / high p-value
1974-1978.. Mr Fuji (+1450)
1979-1983.. Pat Patterson (+1329)
1963-1968.. Bill Watts (+1238)
1974-1978.. Chief Jay Strongbow (+1235)
1979-1983.. Sgt Slaughter (+1143)
1974-1978.. Killer Kowalski (+1110)
1979-1983.. Rick Martel (+1014)
1974-1978.. Tony Garea (+982)
1979-1983.. Greg Valentine (+868)
1974-1978.. Stan Stasiak (+804)

NON-EFFECTIVE DRAWS
Modern Era / low p-value
1989-1993.. Big Bossman (+763)
1984-1988.. Brutus Beefcake (+706)
1984-1988.. Tito Santana (+706)
1989-1993.. Shawn Michaels (+703)
1989-1993.. Ted Dibiase (+558)
1994-1998.. Davey Boy Smith (-1448)

NON-EFFECTIVE DRAWS
Historic Era / low p-value
1979-1983.. Tony Garea (-1762)
1969-1973.. Killer Kowalski (-4748)

NON-EFFECTIVE DRAWS
Modern Era / high p-value
2004-2008.. Kurt Angle (+788)
1999-2003.. Booker T (+625)
1994-1998.. Dustin Rhodes (+496)
1994-1998.. Owen Hart (+487)
2004-2008.. The Big Show (+476)
2004-2008.. Glen Jacobs (+467)
1999-2003.. The Big Show (+467)
1999-2003.. Test3 (+441)
1989-1993.. Jake Roberts (+383)
2009-2013.. Sheamus (+382)
2009-2013.. Bryan Danielson (+272)
1989-1993.. Ric Flair (+254)
1999-2003.. Rikishi (-12)
1994-1998.. Triple H (-34)
2009-2013.. Christian (-170)
2009-2013.. Jack Swagger (-316)
1999-2003.. Big Bossman (-405)
1989-1993.. Sgt Slaughter (-407)
2004-2008.. Edge (-503)
1994-1998.. Sid Justice (-661)

NON-EFFECTIVE DRAWS
Historic Era / high p-value
1963-1968.. Baron Mikel Scicluna (+733)
1969-1973.. Gorilla Monsoon (+656)
1979-1983.. Jimmy Snuka (+468)
1974-1978.. Gorilla Monsoon (+450)
1969-1973.. Haystacks Calhoun (+427)
1963-1968.. Johnny Valentine (+345)
1979-1983.. Masa Saito (+295)
1969-1973.. Prof Toru Tanaka (+202)
1963-1968.. Killer Kowalski (+198)
1979-1983.. Mr Fuji (+174)
1969-1973.. Gito Mongol (+165)
1979-1983.. George Steele (+151)
1963-1968.. Prof Toru Tanaka (+114)
1969-1973.. Nikolai Volkoff (-9)
1974-1978.. Peter Maivia (-206)
1963-1968.. Waldo Von Erich (-442)
1974-1978.. Ken Patera (-494)
1969-1973.. Ivan Koloff (-505)
1963-1968.. Bulldog Brower (-666)
1969-1973.. Freddie Blassie (-815)
1974-1978.. Spiros Arion (-836)
1974-1978.. Larry Zbyszko (-896)
1963-1968.. Smasher Sloan (-1145)
1963-1968.. Luke Graham (-2308)

JCP/WCW Draws 1986-2001

I'm continuing to pour through the WWF and WCW results to run statistics against various time periods and which wrestlers appeared on those shows looking for correlations between wrestlers and attendance.

Yesterday, I tackled JCP/WCW covering about 1800 shows with attendance figures. I looked for wrestlers who competed on 10+ shows within the attendance database for that year, and on those shows had a significantly (500 people or more) higher paid attendance than the annual attendance average. It's not a perfect system because as you see - major events (i did exclude PPVs) like TV tapings can heavily skew the attendance. I also tried to use "paid" attendance, but that number was only available for some events.

1986 (118 shows): Baby Doll (2386), Jim Cornette (2102), Road Warrior Hawk (1538), Road Warrior Animal (1460), Jimmy Garvin (1166), Rick Rude (1150), Nikita Koloff (1122), Ric Flair (1120), Dusty Rhodes (1040), Nelson Royal (1015), Brad Armstrong (957), Dick Murdoch (923), Robert Gibson (860), Tully Blanchard (754), Arn Anderson (651), Ricky Morton (592), Black Bart (519)

1987 (126 shows): Buddy Roberts (5059), Terry Gordy (4051), Chris Adams (2687), Steve Williams (2495), Dick Murdoch (2488), Vladimir Petrov (1949), Road Warrior Hawk (1638), Dutch Mantell (1560), Dusty Rhodes (1529), Rick Steiner (1522), Road Warrior Animal (1484), Black Bart (1375), Wahoo McDaniel (1313), Ray Traylor (1312), Sting (1252), MOD Squad Basher (1191), Ivan Koloff (1183)

1988 (126 shows): Paul Ellering (2665), Robert Gibson (2329), Ricky Morton (2078), Russian Assassin (1902), Brad Armstrong (1314), Jimmy Garvin (1251), Ricky Santana (1246), Dusty Rhodes (1216), Dick Murdoch (1193), Arn Anderson (1175), Mike Rotundo (1116), Tully Blanchard (1084), Kevin Sullivan (1053), Jim Cornette (949), Ivan Koloff (823), Nikita Koloff (749)

1989 (75 shows): Al Greene (1371), Brad Anderson (1110), Tommy Rich (1010), Ric Flair (820), Rip Morgan (816), Sid Vicious (514)

1990 (141 shows): Kevin Sullivan (1775), Shane Douglas (1617), Jack Victory (1321), Rip Morgan (1251), Paul Orndorff (1212), Vader (1125), Lex Luger (688), Road Warrior Hawk (630), Road Warrior Animal (597), Ric Flair (586)

1991 (163 shows): Sid Vicious (1374), Fidel Sierra (1325), Dan Spivey (1087), Ric Flair (780), Rick Rude (747), Scott Steiner (542)

1992 (185 shows): n/a

1993 (163 shows): Raven (1502), Michael Hayes (1131), Kevin Nash (1026), Shane Douglas (812), Vader (698), Paul Orndorff (518)

1994 (93 shows): Hulk Hogan (2461), Diamond Dallas Page (1144), Ric Flair (588)

1995 (87 shows): n/a

1996 (126 shows): Scott Hall (697), Kevin Nash (697), Syxx (611)

1997 (66 shows): Ric Flair (1671), Syxx (1256), Scotty Riggs (794), Disco Inferno (641), Psychosis (568)

1998 (89 shows): Hulk Hogan (6697), Scott Putski (6296), Ultimo Dragon (5482), Booker T (4879), Psychosis (3261), Bill Goldberg (2894), Sting (2356), Rey Mysterio Jr (2111), Scott Norton (2025), Giant (1951), Chavo Guerrero Jr (1810), Norman Smiley (1601), Alex Wright (1392), Lex Luger (1311), Disco Inferno (1241), Scotty Riggs (1187), Billy Kidman (1082), Wrath (852), Scott Steiner (608), Scott Hall (541)

1999 (141 shows): Scott Steiner (5586), Kevin Nash (3623), Wrath (3372), Hulk Hogan (3261), Scott Hall (2689), Scott Norton (2187), Chris Jericho (1988), Brian Adams (1985), Sandman (1314), Kenny Kaos (1273), Bam Bam Bigelow (1190), Raven (984), Rey Mysterio Jr (877), Diamond Dallas Page (765), Bill Goldberg (567), Psychosis (520)
2000-2001 (124 shows): n/a

Clearly, the TV tapings (Nitro/Thunder) are causing some of the distortions. I didn't filter only for top matches, so some interesting jobbers show up on the list as well.
By far the weirdest result was SCOTT PUTSKI who wrestled on some huge shows during the 1998 boom (Georgia Dome, Astrodome, TWA Dome)

WCW @ Atlanta, GA - Georgia Dome - July 6, 1998 (41, 412)
WCW @ Hartford, CT - Civic Center - August 17, 1998 (12, 655; sell out)
WCW @ Terre Haute, IN - Hulman Center - August 25, 1998 (3, 556)
WCW @ Peoria, IL - Civic Center - August 26, 1998 (7, 128)
WCW @ Pensacola, FL - Civic Center - September 7, 1998 (6, 379; sell out)
WCW @ Mobile, AL - September 8, 1998 (3, 988)
WCW @ Amherst, MA - September 22, 1998 (3, 000)
WCW @ Minneapolis, MN - Target Center - October 19, 1998 (15, 722)
WCW @ Wichita, KS - Kansas Coliseum - November 16, 1998 (13, 981)
WCW @ Houston, TX - Astrodome - December 7, 1998 (32, 067)
WCW @ St. Louis, MO - TWA Dome - December 21, 1998 (29, 000)

In the end, I think the more interesting metric is number of years someone appeared on the list - Ric Flair leads with 7 years followed by a legion of people with three (Robert Gibson, Road Warrior Animal, Dick Murdoch, Scott Steiner, Dusty Rhodes, Ricky Morton, Hulk Hogan, Road Warrior Hawk, Kevin Nash, Scott Hall, Lex Luger, Tully Blanchard, Psychosis, Nikita Koloff). Most of those I would consider people that were draws for the time. However, we're comparing very disparate time periods - early 90s was so terrible that 500 more people is incredible. Late 90s was so hot that 500 is less than margin of error!



The person that I was thinking would jump out during this analysis would be Sting - who really didn't.

Monday, September 16, 2013

Wrestlers Age vs Star Ratings: Who has the brightest future?


Responding to the recently updated "Wrestling Observer Star Ratings for WWE/WCW/ECW/ROH/TNA" someone inquired "who, from the list, is the most likely (or at least possible) person to dethrone Chris Benoit's 182 matches with 3+ star ratings?"

That's an interesting question.

(Also, keep in mind that this list is only looking at ROH/TNA/ECW/WCW/WWF - so Benoit's Japanese and Mexico matches aren't even included.)

Here's one way of answering that question that I was thinking about: let's look at the distribution of stars by age of performers in the match.

I took the 600 performers from the database and ran them against a list of wrestler birthdates. I filled in the gaps for any wrestlers that had seven or more matches already rated and in total my sample covers almost 60% of the wrestlers.


First observation is that there is a very clear peak at 31 years-old. Second observation is that the gradient peaks between 29 and 33 - that's the the time period that wrestlers seem to have their greatest strides.

We can think of this is a cumulative probability - 596 out of the 6,166 entries (9.7%) happened when a wrestler was 25 years old or younger.  4,453 entries occurred (72%) when the wrestler was 35 years old or younger.

Expressed as a smooth curve, the distribution of lifetime star rated matches versus wrestler's age would look something like this:




Now, there is some bias in this methodology that you might start to notice.  For instance, this implies that wrestlers will achieve almost 13% of their lifetime total after they've passed their 40th birthday.  When you look at the roster of people who had 3+ star matches after they were "over the hill", it contains some pretty great workers - Ric Flair (93 times), Shawn Michaels (45 times), Kurt Angle (43 times), Diamond Dallas Page (32 times), Undertaker (31 times), Sting (25 times), Booker T (24 times), Finlay (22 times), Kane (21 times), Christopher Daniels (17 times), Terry Funk (16 times) and Triple H (15 times).  

Now, to still be employed and on TV by a major North American non-lucha wrestling company after the age of forty, you've got to have a pretty darn good and able to avoid career-ending injury. There's already several wrestlers on this list who have high lifetime potential but retired (Edge, Billy Kidman or Nigel McGuinness) or passed away (Eddy Guerrero, Brian Pillman, Owen Hart, Davey Boy Smith, Umaga) before they reached forty.  
Likewise, there's a group of wrestlers still active (or potentially active) in major federations who were involved in at least one 3+ star matches in 2011-2013 - and it's not easy to predict how many more years they're going to go: Big Show (41.6), Bully Ray (42.2), Charlie Haas (41.5), Chavo Guerrero Jr (42.9), Chris Jericho (42.9), Christopher Daniels (42.5), D-Von Dudley (41.2), Hernandez (40.6), Kane (46.4), Kurt Angle (44.8), Mark Henry (42.3), R-Truth (41.7), Rob Van Dam (42.8), Steve Corino (40.3), The Rock (41.4), Sting (54.5), Triple H (44.2) and The Undertaker (48.5).  Or returning stars such as Batista (44.7), Jeff Jarrett (46.5), 

It's very possible that a different metric - lifetime number of matches, number of years of experience, quality of opponent matchups - will drive this number much more. But I went with age because I had that variable available.

Still, this analysis provides an interesting look at both "what could have been" for wrestlers that have died, or "what may still be" for younger wrestlers.

The basic formula is look up a Wrestler's age as of today, determine what, on average the proportion of star-rated matches that a wrestler has achieved in their career by that point, and estimate the lifetime rating.  For a wrestler who has not yet turned 33 who has 10 matches already listed, the formula would predict they've already achieved about 59% of their lifetime total.  They'll have about 7 more three-star-plus matches before their career is over.

So, let's look at the top twenty from the list and consider whether we think they'll achieve the statistical norms:

1. Chris Benoit (dead) - committed suicide in June 2007 after murdering his family; he was just over forty years old (90.3% complete) = 20 future matches would hit a projected lifetime of 202.
2. Kurt Angle (actively employed; rehab) - currently 44.8 years old (97.1% complete) = 5 future matches for projected lifetime of 168.
3. Rey Mysterio Jr (actively employed; injury reserve) - currently 38.8 years old (86.7% complete) = 22 future matches for a projected lifetime of 171.
4. Chris Jericho (active; on hiatius) - currently 42.9 years old (95.1% complete) = 7 future more matches for a projected lifetime of 156.
5. Shawn Michaels (retired) - currently 48.2 years old (98.5% complete) = 2 future matches for a projected lifetime of 126.
6. Triple H (semi-active) - currently 44.2 years old (96.5% complete) = 4 future matches for projected lifetime of 123.
7. Edge (retired) - currently 39.9 years old (89.6% complete) = 13 future matches for a projected lifetime of 133.
8. Ric Flair (inactive) - currently 64.7 years old (100% complete) = no future matches for a projected lifetime of 102.
9. Eddy Guerrero (dead) - died in Nov 2005 from Heart Failure; he was 38 years old (84.5% complete) = 19 future matches would hit a projected lifetime of 120.
10. Christian (active) - currently 39.8 years old (89.6% complete) = 11 future matches for a projected lifetime of 109.
11. Randy Orton (active) - currently 33.5 years old (62.3% complete) = 61 future matches for a projected lifetime of 151.
12. AJ Styles (active) - currently 36.3 years old (78.2% complete) = 28 future matches for a projected lifetime of 120.
13. John Cena (active; injury reserve) - currently 36.4 years old (78.2% complete) = 26 future matches for a projected lifetime of 113.
14. Jeff Hardy (active) - currently 36.0 years old (77.2% complete) = 25 future matches for a projected lifetime of 110.
15. Steve Austin (retired) - currently 48.8 years old (98.7% complete) = 1 future match for a projected lifetime of 81.
16. Sting (active) - currently 54.5 years old (99.5% complete) = no future matches for a projected lifetime of 77.
17. Christopher Daniels (active) - currently 42.5 years old (94.8% complete) = 3 future matches for a projected lifetime of 72.
18. The Undertaker (semi-retired) - currently 48.5 years old (98.6% complete) = 1 future match for a projected lifetime of 67.
19. Samoa Joe (active) - currently 34.5 years old (69.4% complete) = 26 future matches for a projected lifetime of 97.
20. The Rock (semi-retired) - currently 41.4 years old (92.9% complete) = 5 future matches for a projected lifetime of 65.
20. Chris Sabin (active) - currently 31.6 years old (50.4% complete) = 51 future matches for a projected lifetime of 119.

Obviously, we can't really know what Eddy & Chris would have achieved. 
I think the estimates for the likes of Kurt Angle and Christopher Daniels are low-- I think they'll have a dozen more really great matches before they retire.

I think the estimates for Rey Mysterio, Edge, Christian, and Rock are too high; Rey seems way to broken down to have another twenty 3+ star affairs. Edge is not coming back in the foreseeable future, and if he did, it would be a one-time shot - not more than a dozen matches.  Rock is making too much money in Hollywood and getting too beat up from wrestling to have five more huge, 3+ star matches in my opinion.  Christian is slowing down and I think he'll have some more big matches, but not nearly a dozen more.

Some estimates feel alright - I don't see Sting having another barn-burner. I think Undertaker has one or two mega-matches left in him.  Austin could have one big final hurrah. I could even see that if HBK came back (retire HHH or such), he'd pull out all the stops to have at least one more amazing battle.

When it comes to guys with decent futures - Randy Orton, AJ Styles, Cena, Hardy, Samoa Joe - it predicts they've got several dozen more great matches in them, and I don't doubt it. 

When it comes to the young, like Chris Sabin and his 50+ future match projection - it's so hard to guess the future.  Other guys in a similar place: Chris Sabin, Alex Shelley, Jay Lethal, Sonjay Dutt, Roderick Strong, Davey Richards, Cody Rhodes, Jay Briscoe, Kevin Steen, Mark Briscoe, Evan Bourne, Eddie Edwards, Jack Swagger, Seth Rollins, Amazing Red, Jimmy Jacobs, Consequences Creed, El Generico, Adam Cole are all under 32 years old and already have 10+ matches on the list.  The youngster, Adam Cole at 24.2 is at a ridiculous 7% lifetime total which would imply over a 132 future matches.  That's a ridiculous claim to guess a lifetime number for a young kid in ROH.  Jay Lethal, Alex Shelley and Cody Rhodes are all between 28 and 30 right now; they still have quite a very bright future.

Who has the track record to ascend the list? The analysis calls out these guys who are over the age of 32, and all have 19+ matches already on the list: Randy Orton, AJ Styles, John Cena, Jeff Hardy, Samoa Joe, James Storm, CM Punk, Daniel Bryan, John Morrison, Austin Aries, Dolph Ziggler, Low Ki, Kofi Kingston, and even Mike Mizanin & Petey Williams (what a tag team!).  Personally, I think Bryan is in the upper-echelon that will be able to have great matches with a lot of people for a long time to come.  Punk is in that group too, but I think he's starting to break down and get frustrated, and so I don't know whether we'll see him in WWE in 5 years from now or not.

Honestly, I think the model suggests that Orton could hit 150 and I think that estimate is low. Barring the dreaded third strike, he's got an enormous opportunity to be the highest ranked active guy after Angle retires (who knows when that will be) and Rey Mysterio officially admits its over.


Analysis by Chris Harrington

Wednesday, September 11, 2013

Hulk Hogan's Effect on Attendance in WWF from 1984-1991 - analysis by Chris Harrington

I took a stab at the question: What were Hulk Hogan's attendance numbers like, on average, in the 80s?

I looked at 19,000+ WWWF/WWF/WWE shows from thehistoryofwwe.com from 1963-2013 and pulled attendance numbers for the shows from the descriptions (about six thousand of the shows).

Keep in mind:
* Attendance quotes from this era are hardly a scientific number because "announced" figures were exaggerated and I have no idea where these estimates originally came from.
* Obviously Hogan was going to work the largest cities. The other crews went to the smaller markets, so it's likely to be skewed towards the tours that Hogan (as the top guy) was on.
* I have estimates for a portion of the shows, usually about 40% from 1984 through 1991. The smaller cities are more likely to be the cities without estimates so you're getting an incomplete picture.
* Exceptionally large events (like PPVs) are going to skew the numbers which Hogan was very likely to work.

1984: 693 shows (65 shows w/ attendance figures and Hogan matches, 94 shows with attendance figures without Hogan matches)
1985: 668 shows (84 shows w/ attendance figures and  Hogan matches, 169 shows with attendance figures without Hogan matches)
1986: 746 shows (106 shows w/ attendance figures and Hogan matches, 185 shows with attendance figures without Hogan matches)
1987: 754 shows (123 shows w/ attendance figures and  Hogan matches, 225 shows with attendance figures without Hogan matches)
1988: 637 shows (66 shows w/ attendance figures and Hogan matches, 191 shows with attendance figures without Hogan matches)
1989: 640 shows (88 shows w/ attendance figures and Hogan matches, 146 shows with attendance figures without Hogan matches)
1990: 670 shows (63 shows w/ attendance figures and Hogan matches, 220 shows with attendance figures without Hogan matches)
1991: 490 shows (71 shows w/ attendance figures and Hogan matches, 133 shows with attendance figures without Hogan matches)

Average Attendance
1984: 10,857 attendance for shows with Hogan / 5,737 attendance for shows without Hogan
1985: 11,437 attendance for shows with Hogan / 6,407 attendance for shows without Hogan
1986: 11,756 attendance for shows with Hogan / 6,292 attendance for shows without Hogan
1987: 10,440 attendance for shows with Hogan / 4,770 attendance for shows without Hogan
1988: 10,354 attendance for shows with Hogan / 5,338 attendance for shows without Hogan
1989: 10,983 attendance for shows with Hogan / 5,802 attendance for shows without Hogan
1990: 10,404 attendance for shows with Hogan / 4,778 attendance for shows without Hogan
1991: 9,767 attendance for shows with Hogan / 5,233 attendance for shows without Hogan
1984-1991: 10,804 attendance for shows with Hogan / 5,483 attendance for shows without Hogan

Is it definitive?

As you go through the cities, you certainly find examples of both where Hogan drew more in a given city than the tours without him and times when the numbers are very similar.

Consider: a city like Vancouver, British Columbia; we have six shows with attendance figures - three with Hogan (average 10,500) and three without Hogan (average 4,148).
Still, they're in different years, with different line-ups. Here were the cards:

Hogan Shows
WWF @ Vancouver, British Columbia - BC Place - July 5, 1986 (16,000+)
WWF World Champion Hulk Hogan defeated Big John Studd
Also included WWF Tag Team Champions Davey Boy Smith & the Dynamite Kid

WWF @ Vancouver, British Columbia - PNE Coliseum - December 2, 1990 (about 10,000)
WWF Tag Team Champion Jim Neidhart pinned Demolition Smash
Black Bart pinned Koko B. Ware
The Legion of Doom defeated the Orient Express & Mr. Fuji in a handicap match
Tugboat pinned Dino Bravo
Davey Boy Smith pinned Buddy Rose
Sgt. Slaughter pinned Jim Duggan
WWF IC Champion Mr. Perfect defeated Kerry Von Erich via count-out; Roddy Piper was the guest referee for the bout
Earthquake defeated Hulk Hogan via count-out

WWF @ Vancouver, British Columbia - Pacific Coliseum - July 7, 1991 (5,500)
Ricky Steamboat vs. the Brooklyn Brawler
Tugboat vs. Koko B. Ware
Shawn Michaels & Marty Jannetty vs. Paul Roma & Hercules
Bret Hart vs. IRS
Virgil vs. Ted Dibiase
The Legion of Doom vs. WWF Tag Team Champions the Nasty Boys
Davey Boy Smith vs. WWF IC Champion Mr. Perfect
WWF World Champion Hulk Hogan vs. Sgt. Slaughter (Desert Storm match)

Non-Hogan Shows
WWF @ Vancouver, British Columbia - December 6, 1984 (1,700)
Gama Singh defeated Ben Bassarab
Bret Hart defeated Mr. Fuji
Moondog Spot defeated Steve Austin (Ray Evans)
Angelo Mosca defeated the Iron Sheik in a Death Match
WWF Women's Champion Wendi Richter defeated the Fabulous Moolah
George Wells defeated Nikolai Volkoff via disqualification
Tony Atlas defeated Moondog Rex
Tito Santana defeated WWF IC Champion Greg Valentine via count-out

WWF @ Vancouver, British Columbia - PNE Coliseum - September 9, 1986 (7,000)
Owen Hart pinned Moose Morowski
Iron Mike Sharpe pinned Terry Gibbs
Danny Spivey pinned Bret Hart
Jim Neidhart pinned Mike Rotundo
Billy Jack Haynes defeated Bob Orton Jr. via disqualification
Tito Santana pinned Nikolai Volkoff
WWF IC Champion Randy Savage defeated George Steele via count-out
Big & Super Machine defeated Big John Studd & King Kong Bundy via disqualification

WWF @ Vancouver, British Columbia - July 21, 1990 (3,744)
Shane Douglas pinned Black Bart
WWF World Champion the Ultimate Warrior pinned Rick Rude
Paul Roma pinned Paul Diamond
Nikolai Volkoff pinned Boris Zhukov
Koko B. Ware pinned the Genius
The Bushwhackers defeated Greg Valentine & the Honkytonk Man via disqualification
The Big Bossman pinned Ted Dibiase

It is conclusive proof? Hardly; but it's an interesting example. 

However, there's a lot of missing attendance figures for other cards in this city including:
WWF @ Vancouver, British Columbia - February 25, 1985
WWF @ Vancouver, British Columbia - January 26, 1985
WWF @ Vancouver, British Columbia - November 9, 1986
WWF @ Vancouver, British Columbia - PNE Coliseum - May 16, 1986
WWF @ Vancouver, British Columbia - PNE Coliseum - September 5, 1986
WWF @ Vancouver, British Columbia - January 22, 1987
WWF @ Vancouver, British Columbia - Pacific Coliseum - May 14, 1987
WWF @ Vancouver, British Columbia - PNE Coliseum - September 1, 1987
WWF @ Vancouver, British Columbia - PNE Coliseum - November 10, 1987 (Had Hogan wrestling)
WWF @ Vancouver, British Columbia - PNE Coliseum - January 18, 1988 (Had Hogan wrestling)
WWF @ Vancouver, British Columbia - July 1988
WWF @ Vancouver, British Columbia - Pacific Coliseum - August 27, 1988
WWF @ Vancouver, British Columbia - Pacific Coliseum - December 12, 1988
WWF @ Vancouver, British Columbia - PNE Coliseum - October 17, 1988
WWF @ Vancouver, British Columbia - Pacific Coliseum - February 28, 1989
WWF @ Vancouver, British Columbia - PNE Coliseum - December 8, 1989
WWF @ Vancouver, British Columbia - PNE Coliseum - July 1, 1989
WWF @ Vancouver, British Columbia - March 19, 1990
WWF @ Vancouver, British Columbia - May 24, 1991
WWF @ Vancouver, British Columbia - Pacific Coliseum - February 20, 1991
WWF @ Vancouver, British Columbia - Pacific Coliseum - November 2, 1991
WWF @ Vancouver, British Columbia - January 10, 1992
WWF @ Vancouver, British Columbia - Pacific Coliseum - June 11, 1992

Without all of these other datapoints, there's certainly a lot of selection bias in play when you're looking at which cities Hogan went on tour and which cities Hogan did not.

-Chris Harrington (chris.harrington@gmail.com)

WWWF/WWF World Champion Challengers (1963-1983)

Since it's Wrestling Observer HOF season, I'll be publishing various stats that may be meaningful to some of the voters as they evaluate the various candidates.


The top column is the WWWF/WWF World Champion going into the match and the column on the left is represents who wrestled in the match. 



Disclaimers:


Mookie's Disclaimers/Notes


1. There are a few name changes that would add in additional challenges. I updated most, but I'm sure there are some that I didn't fix yet.


2. All results were taken from TheHistoryofWWE 1963-1983 this morning, so there is the possibility of misisng results, duplicated results, non-WWF cards and plenty of other shenanigans. There's a handful of matches that I left out - matches where the title was vacant (at least in local lore) and so the winner was declared the new champion (Bob Backlund defeated Bobby Duncum in a Texas Death Match to win the vacant WWF World Title at 17:18 in 1979) or all of the Antonio Inoki as world Champion matches (add one more for Backlund, Duncum, Morales if you're so inclined).


3. This doesn't give priority to major markets (i.e. MSG is weighted the same as House show in PA) and does include the shows where there's only a "A vs B" listing (which we'll assume actually happened, but the match may have not.). I filtered on explicitly on the phrase "World Champion" so it's possible some title defenses where the champion was involved, but for whatever reason the match listing failed to note they were "WWWF World Champion" could be excluded.


4. I excluded all multi-man matches - no six-man tags, no handicap Bruno beats up Buggsy McGraw & Lou Albano and only WWWF/WWF World Champion (i.e. 1980's Peter Maivia vs. AWA World Champion Nick Bockwinkel wasn't included).


FINAL COUNT OF WWWF/WWF CHALLENGERS (1963-1983)

Gorilla Monsoon (111), Prof Toru Tanaka (95), Killer Kowalski (93), George Steele (90), Waldo Von Erich (89), Ivan Koloff (82), Luke Graham (66), Sgt Slaughter (63), Superstar Billy Graham (62), Bill Miller (57), Don Muraco (57), Baron Mikel Scicluna (56), Greg Valentine (51), Hans Mortier (50), Ken Patera (50), Spiros Arion (49), Stan Stasiak (47), Peter Maivia (39), Bobby Duncum (38), Bulldog Brower (37), Killer Khan (36), Freddie Blassie (35), Chief Jay Strongbow (34), Bob Orton Jr (33), Mr Fuji (33), Blackjack Mulligan (31), Curtis Iaukea (30), Tarzan Tyler (28), Larry Zbyszko (28), Stan Hansen (28), Dr Jerry Graham (27), Buddy Rose (25), Pat Patterson (24), Jimmy Snuka (24), Smasher Sloan (23), Afa (22), Jimmy Valiant (21), Nikolai Volkoff (21), Adrian Adonis (20), The Beast (19), Ivan Putski (18), Angelo Mosca (18), the Iron Sheik (18), Bill Watts (17), Tony Garea (17), Jesse Ventura (16), Ray Stevens (16), The Masked Superstar (15), the Hangman (15), the Sheik (15), Virgil the Kentucky Butcher (15), Ernie Ladd (14), Hulk Hogan (14), Dusty Rhodes (14), Moondog Mayne (13), Don Leo Jonathan (13), Buddy Wolfe (13), Bull Ortega (13), the Shadow (12), the Golden Terror (12), Lou Albano (12), Bruno Sammartino (11), Buddy Austin (11), Bull Ramos (11), Big John Studd (11), Gene Kiniski (11), Magnificent Maurice (11), Blackjack Lanza (11), the Black Demon (10), the Spoiler (10), Johnny Powers (10), Johnny Valiant (10), Bob Backlund (9), Klondike Bill (9), Karl Kovacs (9), Tank Morgan (9), Bruiser Brody (9), Bobo Brazil (9), Mike McCord (9), Brute Bernard (8), Swede Hanson (8), Tony Nero (8), the Wolfman (7), Antonio Inoki (7), Skull Murphy (7), Jerry Valiant (7), Larry Hennig (6), Johnny Barend (6), Crusher Verdu (6), the Destroyer (6), Dan Miller (6), Frank Martinez (6), Pedro Morales (5), Tony Altimore (5), Boris Malenko (5), Harley Race (5), Johnny Valentine (5), Mr Saito (5), Frank Hickey (5), Tor Kamata (5), Rocky Johnson (5), Strong Kobayashi (5), Baron Von Raschke (5), Giant Baba (5), Jos LeDuc (4), Gene Kelly (4), Rocky Fitzpatrick (4), Dory Dixon (4), Pedro Rodriguez (4), Iron Mike Sharpe (4), Victor Rivera (4), Johnny Rodz (4), Beautiful Bobby (4), Joe Quinones (4), Butcher Vachon (3), Edouard Carpentier (3), Paul Reinhardt (3), Billy White Wolf (3), Pampero Firpo (3), Bugsy McGraw (3), the Crusher (3), Bull Johnson (3), Dick Murdoch (3), Otto Von Heller (3), Haystacks Calhoun (3), Ron Bass (3), Jose Estrada (3), Joe Cox (2), Gordo Chihuahua (2), Rocky Cookson (2), Johnny Boyd (2), Jean DuBois (2), Dominic DeNucci (2), Raymond Rougeau (2), Buddy Wolf (2), Ron Reed (2), Art Nielson (2), Chuck O'Conner (2), Jose Quintero (2), Tiger Jeet Singh (2), Duke Hoffman (2), Pablo Iturbi (2), Lord Alfred Hayes (2), Ric Flair (2), Matt Gillmore (2), Geto Mongol (2), Mike Loren (2), Cal West (2), Bull Pometti (2), Tatsumi Fujinami (2), Mil Mascaras (2), the Executioner (2), Mitsu Arakawa (2), Bob Boyington (2), Moondog Rex (2), Tony Atlas (2), Mr X (2), Ox Anderson (2), Riki Choshu (2), Guillotine Gordon (1), Tom Andrews (1), Crusher Blackwell (1), Miguel Torres (1), Wildman Austin (1), Jose Gonzales (1), Hiro Matsuda (1), Mike Madero (1), Ed Francis (1), Johnny Carr (1), Max Mortier (1), Mike Rivera (1), Sika (1), Mike York (1), Hans Schmidt (1), Mike Zeabes (1), Chuck Richards (1), Don Serrano (1), Jack Evans (1), Bob Sweetan (1), Jim Garvin (1), El Olympico (1), Dick the Bruiser (1), Kengo Kimura (1), unknown (1), Moose Morowski (1), Seiji Sakaguchi (1), Eric the Red (1), Carlos Rocha (1), Black Angus (1), Steve Keirn (1), Kevin Sullivan (1), Al Costello (1), Nick Bockwinkel (1), Ted Adams (1), Nikita Mulkovitch (1), the Blue Demon (1), Firpo Zbyzsko (1), Jack Brisco (1), Orwell Paris (1), the Kentucky Butcher (1), Osamu Kido (1), Jim Conroy (1), Frank Durso (1), Tiger Chung Lee (1), Killer Austin (1), Tommy O'Toole (1), Ox Baker (1), Tony Manousas (1), Billy Robinson (1), Darrell Cochrane (1), Bengali (1), John Meinger (1), Bulldog Brown (1), Miguel Perez (1), Paul Adams (1), Le Bourreau (1), Paul Jones (1), Bob Gonzalez (1), Frank Pickens (1), Charie Fulton (1), Frank Rodriguez (1), Chavo Guerrero (1), Bulldog Gannon (1), Steve King (1), Pete Austin (1), Hans Schroeder (1), Geeto Montol (1), Chuck Adcock (1), Prof Hiro (1), Art Thomas (1), Butcher Brannigan (1), Luis Garcia (1), Prof X (1), the Black Shadow (1), Baron Gattoni (1), Col Currie (1), Don Kent (1), Ed Castillio (1), King Kong Tonga (1), the Great Kudo (1), Dave Morgan (1), Mad Dog Vachon (1), Robert Duranton (1), the Masked Marvel (1), Duke Keomuka (1), Crybaby Cannon (1), Buzz Tyler (1), The Shiek (1), Gerald Finley (1), Jim Grabmire (1), Roddy Piper (1), Manuel Soto (1), Roger Kirby (1), Tomas Marin (1), Duke Miller (1), Buddy Bicon (1), Ron Cummings (1), Bob Bradley (1), Duke Myers (1), Tony Marino (1), Ron Romero (1), Tony Newberry (1), Ron Starr (1), Twin Devil #2 (1), Ronnie Etchison (1), Joe Thomas (1), Rugged Russian #2 (1), John Tolos (1), Salvatore Bellomo (1), Willie Farkas (1), Samula (1), SD Jones (1), 

A year by year / champion by champion list is available at http://prowrestlingonly.com/index.php?s=&showtopic=20981&view=findpost&p=5561805 based on work from Hollinger.

Tuesday, September 03, 2013

Wrestlers that look better Losing than Winning (2008-13)

I've been working on combing through the last 5 years of Observers which are online to mine all of Dave's star ratings. This covered 472 TNA matches (58 PPVs), 481 WWE matches (69 PPVs) along with 219 NJPW matches (20 events), 84 DG/DGUSA matches (13 events) and 118 ROH matches (15 events).

I was curious if there was any wrestlers who have a track record where Dave rated their losses consistently rated higher than their wins.. I used the critiera that they had to have at least five wins and five losses to be included in this list. Nine people popped out: Big Show, Kane, Karl Anderson, Takashi Iizuka, Velvet Sky, Santino Marella, Yoshi-Hashi, Scott Steiner, Sin Cara

Image

#1: Santino Marella: 16 matches (7-9-0)

Highest Star ratings for wins: 1.75
Summerslam 2008: 2. Santino Marella & Beth Phoenix became IC and women's champs respectively, beating Kofi Kingston & Mickie James in 5:40. *3/4

Highest Star ratings for losses: 4.0
Money in the Bank 2012: 1. Dolph Ziggler won the Smackdown Money in the Bank match over Santino Marella, Cody Rhodes, Sin Cara, Christian, Damien Sandow, Tensai and Tyson Kidd in 18:27. There were so many high spots here it would be impossible to list them all. ****

Win Average: 0.25 stars (7 matches) -0.86 vs avg
Loss Average: 1.78 stars (9 matches) +0.67 vs avg
Overall Average: 1.11 stars
Win vs Loss Differential: -1.53 stars

#2: Kane: 41 matches (16-24-1)

Highest Star ratings for wins: 4.0
Money in the Bank 2010: 1. Kane won the Smackdown Money in the Bank match over Big Show, Dolph Ziggler, Matt Hardy, Christian, Drew McIntyre, Cody Rhodes and Kofi Kingston in 26:18. ****

Highest Star ratings for losses: 4.5
TLC 2012: 5. Roman Reigns & Seth Rollins & Dean Ambrose beat Kane & Daniel Bryan & Ryback in a TLC match that could only end via pinfall or submission in 22:44. ****½

Overall Average: 2.30 stars
Win Average: 1.41 stars (16 matches) -0.90 vs avg
Loss Average: 2.92 stars (24 matches) +0.61 vs avg
Draw Average: 2.00 stars (1 match)
Win vs Loss Differential: -1.51 stars

#3: Sin Cara: 10 matches (5-5-0)

Highest Star ratings for wins: 3.0
Survivor Series 2012: 2. In an unadvertised 10-man elimination match, Rey Mysterio & Sin Cara & Tyson Kidd & Justin Gabriel & Brodus Clay beat Tensai & Titus O'Neil & Darren Young & Primo & Epico in 18:26. ***

Highest Star ratings for losses: 4.0
Money in the Bank 2012: 1. Dolph Ziggler won the Smackdown Money in the Bank match over Santino Marella, Cody Rhodes, Sin Cara, Christian, Damien Sandow, Tensai and Tyson Kidd in 18:27. ****

Overall Average: 2.68 stars
Win Average: 2.00 stars (5 matches) -0.68 vs avg
Loss Average: 3.35 stars (5 matches) +0.68 vs avg
Win vs Loss Differential: -1.35 stars

#4: Yoshi-Hashi: 16 matches (7-9-0)

Highest Star ratings for wins: 3.25
2012: 2. Rocky Romero & Tomohiro Ishii & Yoshi-Hashi beat Yuji Nagata & Wataru Inoue & Captain New Japan in 9:26. ***1/4

Highest Star ratings for losses: 3.5
G-1 2013: 9. Kazushi Sakuraba & Akebono & Kota Ibushi beat Takashi Iizuka & Yoshi-Hashi & Tomohiro Ishii in 13:23. ***½

Overall Average: 2.13 stars
Win Average: 1.64 stars (7 matches) -0.48 vs avg
Loss Average: 2.50 stars (9 matches) +0.38 vs avg
Win vs Loss Differential: -0.86 stars

#5: Takashi Iizuka: 19 matches (6-12-1)

Highest Star ratings for wins: 2.0
2012: 2. Tomohiro Ishii & Takashi Iizuka & Jado & Yoshi-Hashi & Toru Yano beat Manabu Nakanishi & Jushin Liger & Tiger Mask & Captain New Japan & Negro Casas in 7:20. **
2012: 1. Takashi Iizuka & Tomohiro Ishii & Toru Yano beat Manabu Nakanishi & Yuji Nagata & Strongman (Jon Anderson) in 11:29. **

Highest Star ratings for losses: 3.5
2013: 4. Satoshi Kojima & Hiroyoshi Tenzan retained the IWGP tag team titles in the three-way championship team battle against NWA tag champs Davey Boy Smith jr & Lance Archer (The Killer Elite Squad) and GHC tag champs Toru Yano & Takashi Iizuka in 11:50. ***½
2013: 4. Hiroyoshi Tenzan & Satoshi Kojima retained the IWGP tag team titles beating Toru Yano & Takashi Iizuka. ***½
G-1 2013: 9. Kazushi Sakuraba & Akebono & Kota Ibushi beat Takashi Iizuka & Yoshi-Hashi & Tomohiro Ishii in 13:23. ***½

Overall Average: 2.08 stars
Win Average: 1.46 stars (6 matches) -0.62 vs avg
Loss Average: 2.31 stars (12 matches) +0.23 vs avg
Draw Average: 3.00 stars (1 match)
Win vs Loss Differential: -0.85 stars

#6: Velvet Sky: 17 matches (5-12-0)

Highest Star ratings for wins: 1.75
Genesis 2013: 6. Velvet Sky won a women's gauntlet match to become the top contender for Tara's Knockouts title, over Gail Kim, Miss Tessmacher, ODB and Mickie James. *3/4

Highest Star ratings for losses: 3.0
Hard Justice 2008: 2. Taylor Wilde & Gail Kim & ODB beat Angelina Love & Velvet Sky & Awesome Kong in 11:27. ***

Overall Average: 1.19 stars
Win Average: 0.60 stars (5 matches) -0.59 vs avg
Loss Average: 1.44 stars (12 matches) +0.25 vs avg
Win vs Loss Differential: -0.84 stars

#7: Big Show: 46 matches (20-25-1)

Highest Star ratings for wins: 3.5
Hell in a Cell 2012: 6. Big Show pinned Sheamus to win the World title in 20:11. ***½
Hell in the Cell 2009: 4. Chris Jericho & Big Show retained the tag titles over Batista & Rey Mysterio in 13:41. ***½
No Mercy 2008: 5. Big Show beat Undertaker via ref stoppage in 10:04. ***½

Highest Star ratings for losses: 4.25 stars
No Way Out 2009: 1. HHH won the Smackdown title in the elimination chamber over Undertaker, Edge, Jeff Hardy, Big Show and Vladimir Kozlov in 35:55. ****1/4
Elimination Chamber 2011: 2. Edge won the Smackdown elimination chamber match to retain the World title in 31:28 over Kane, Drew McIntyre, Rey Mysterio, Wade Barrett and Big Show. ****1/4

Overall Average: 2.28 stars
Win Average: 1.83 stars (20 matches) -0.46 vs avg
Loss Average: 2.61 stars (25 matches) +0.33 vs avg
Draw Average: 3.25 stars (1 match)
Win vs Loss Differential: -0.79 stars

#8: Karl Anderson: 24 matches (12-12-0)

Highest Star ratings for wins: 3.5
2013: 5. Karl Anderson pinned Roderick Strong in 12:33. ***½
2012: 9. Hirooki Goto & Karl Anderson beat Lance Archer & Davey Boy Smith jr to win the tag tournament in 15:36 ***½
G-1 2013: 2. (B) Karl Anderson pinned Hiroyoshi Tenzan in 9:55. Crowd really into Tenzan. ***½
G-1 2013: 8. (B) Karl Anderson pinned Shinsuke Nakamura in 12:54 with the gun stun. ***½

Highest Star ratings for losses: 4.75
2013: 9. Hiroshi Tanahashi retained the IWGP heavyweight title pinning Karl Anderson in 25:10. ****3/4

Overall Average: 3.25 stars
Win Average: 2.85 stars (12 matches) -0.40 vs avg
Loss Average: 3.65 stars (12 matches) +0.40 vs avg
Win vs Loss Differential: -0.79 stars

#9: Scott Steiner: 16 matches (7-9-0)

Highest Star ratings for wins: 3.5
Final Resolution 2008: 7. Sting & Scott Steiner & Kevin Nash & Booker T beat AJ Styles & Samoa Joe & Team 3-D ***½

Highest Star ratings for losses: 3.5
Bound for Glory 2009: 5. Team 3-D won the IWGP tag titles and Doug Williams & Brutus Magnus (going in as IWGP champs) won the TNA tag titles over Scott Steiner & Booker T (former TNA champs) and Robert Roode & James Storm in a Full Metal Mayhem double ladder match in 17:13. ***½
Lockdown 2009: 7. AJ Styles & Daniels & Jeff Jarrett & Samoa Joe beat Kurt Angle & Kevin Nash & Booker T & Scott Steiner in the Lethal Lockdown match in 23:01. ***½

Overall Average: 2.25 stars
Win Average: 1.86 stars (7 matches) -0.39 vs avg
Loss Average: 2.56 stars (9 matches) +0.31 vs avg
Win vs Loss Differential: -0.70 stars

By contrast, there was only two people who jumped out when you looked for the converse situation (that is, they were rated significantly higher when they win):
A. Undertaker: 20 matches (12-8-0)

Highest Star ratings for wins: 4.75
Wrestlemania 2010: 10. Undertaker pinned Shawn Michaels in 23:59 in what was billed as the streak vs the career. ****3/4
Wrestlemania 2012: 5. Undertaker pinned HHH in a Hell in a Cell match with Shawn Michaels as referee in 30:50. ****3/4

Highest Star ratings for losses: 4.25
No Way Out 2009: 1. HHH won the Smackdown title in the elimination chamber over Undertaker, Edge, Jeff Hardy, Big Show and Vladimir Kozlov in 35:55. ****1/4

Overall Average: 3.04 stars
Win Average: 3.46 stars (12 matches) +0.42 vs avg
Loss Average: 2.41 stars (8 matches) -0.62 vs avg
Win vs Loss Differential: +1.05 stars

B. Natalya: 13 matches (7-6-0)

Highest Star ratings for wins: 2.5
Fatal 4 Way 2010: 6. David Hart Smith & Tyson Kidd & Natalya beat Jimmy & Jey Uso & Tamina in 9:28. **½

Highest Star ratings for losses: 1.75
Great American Bash 2008: 5. Michelle McCool beat Natalya in 4:41 to become the first Smackdown Divas champion. *3/4

Overall Average: 1.19 stars
Win Average: 1.64 stars (7 matches) +0.45 vs avg
Loss Average: 0.67 stars (6 matches) -0.53 vs avg
Win vs Loss Differential: +0.98 stars

Note: The multi-man spotfests (like MITB) create a lot of noise. Let's look just at singles matches. 
Singles Analysis

This looks only at people who had 5+ singles wins and 5+ singles losses in the past five years on PPV/iPPV for matches that received star ratings.

These are the five people with the largest difference between the average star rating for a win and a loss:

Singles #1: Karl Anderson: 13 matches (7-6-0)

Highest Star ratings for singles wins: 3.5
2013: 5. Karl Anderson pinned Roderick Strong in 12:33. ***½
G-1 2013: 8. (B) Karl Anderson pinned Shinsuke Nakamura in 12:54 with the gun stun. ***½
G-1 2013: 2. (B) Karl Anderson pinned Hiroyoshi Tenzan in 9:55. ***½

Highest Star ratings for singles losses: 4.75
2013: 9. Hiroshi Tanahashi retained the IWGP heavyweight title pinning Karl Anderson in 25:10. ****3/4

Overall Average: 3.37 stars
Win Average: 2.86 stars (7 matches) -0.51 vs avg
Loss Average: 3.96 stars (6 matches) +0.59 vs avg
Win vs Loss Differential: -1.10 stars

Singles #2. Kane: 18 matches (9-8-1)

Highest Star ratings for singles wins: 2.5
Summerslam 2010: 5. Kane pinned Rey Mysterio to keep the world title in 13:32. **½

Highest Star ratings for singles losses: 3.0
Elimination Chamber 2012: 6. John Cena beat Kane in 21:20 of an ambulance match ***
Extreme Rules 2012: 1. Randy Orton pinned Kane in 16:43 in a falls count anywhere match. ***

Overall Average: 1.49 stars
Win Average: 0.94 stars (9 matches) -0.54 vs avg
Loss Average: 2.03 stars (8 matches) +0.55 vs avg
Win vs Loss Differential: -1.09 stars

Singles #3: Mickie James: 16 matches (6-9-1)

Highest Star ratings for singles wins: 2.25
Hell in the Cell 2009: 3. Mickie James pinned Alicia Fox to retain the Divas title in 5:20. **1/4

Highest Star ratings for singles losses: 2.5
Against all Odds 2011: 4. Madison Rayne retained the Knockouts title over Mickie James in 8:27 in a last woman standing match. **½
TLC 2009: 3. Michelle McCool retained the Women's title beating Mickie James in 7:31. **½
Final Resolution 2010: 2. Tara pinned Mickie James in 10:25 in a falls count anywhere match. **½
Final Resolution 2012: 5. Tara pinned Mickie James to retain the Knockouts title in 7:51. **½

Overall Average: 1.52 stars
Win Average: 0.88 stars (6 matches) -0.64 vs avg
Loss Average: 1.75 stars (9 matches) +0.23 vs avg
Win vs Loss Differential: -0.88 stars

Singles #4: HHH: 16 matches (10-6-0)

Highest Star ratings for singles wins: 4.25
No Mercy 2008: 6. HHH pinned Jeff Hardy in 17:01 to retain the WWE championship. ****1/4

Highest Star ratings for singles losses: 4.75
Wrestlemania 2012: 5. Undertaker pinned HHH in a Hell in a Cell match with Shawn Michaels as referee in 30:50. ****3/4

Overall Average: 3.23 stars
Win Average: 2.93 stars (10 matches) -0.31 vs avg
Loss Average: 3.75 stars (6 matches) +0.52 vs avg
Win vs Loss Differential: -0.83 stars

Singles #5: Batista: 14 matches (8-5-1)

Highest Star ratings for singles wins: 3.75
Summerslam 2008: 6. Batista pinned John Cena in 13:41. Also a good match. Crowd booed Cena's offense early. Batista used a jackhammer for a near fall. ***3/4

Highest Star ratings for singles losses: 4.25
Extreme Rules 2010: 10. John Cena retained the WWE title beating Batista in 24:34 in a last man standing match. ****1/4

Overall Average: 3.02 stars
Win Average: 2.75 stars (8 matches) -0.27 vs avg
Loss Average: 3.45 stars (5 matches) +0.43 vs avg
Win vs Loss Differential: -0.70 stars

(The singles competitors who have positive delta between Win/Loss star ratings were Undertaker and Tetsuya Naito.)



When you think of wrestlers that tend to look better when they're losing rather than when they're winning, who jumps to mind for you?

Finally, it's interesting to pinpoint the wrestlers who looked consistent regardless of whether it's a singles win or singles loss.
They were: Hiroshi Tanahashi, Matt Morgan, Edge, Shelton Benjamin, Matt Hardy, Daniel Bryan, Jeff Jarrett. 
All seven had less than a 0.08 star rating difference between their average for wins and their average for losses.

Average Star Ratings/Singles Records on PPV/iPPV (June 2008-August 2013)
Hiroshi Tanahashi: 20 matches (12-8-0) = 4.17 win average; 4.22 loss average
Matt Morgan: 19 matches (8-11-0) = 1.56 win average; 1.57 loss average
Prince Devitt: 16 matches (10-6-0) = 3.58 win average; 3.46 loss average
Edge: 15 matches (9-5-1) = 3.56 win average; 3.55 loss average
Shelton Benjamin: 13 matches (6-7-0) = 2.75 win average; 2.68 loss average
Matt Hardy: 13 matches (6-7-0) = 2.83 win average; 2.75 loss average
Daniel Bryan: 11 matches (5-6-0) = 3.40 win average; 3.46 loss average

(If you expand the span out to between .10 and .20 span, you add Jeff Hardy, Samoa Joe, Chris Jericho, Alberto Del Rio, Beth Phoenix, Mark Henry.)
(Between 0.20 and 0.30 lies John Cena, Kurt Angle, AJ Styles, Rob Van Dam, Big Show, Alberto Del Rio, Jay Lethal, Christian, Kofi Kingston.)


Interesting to see how Big Show's variance pretty much disappears if you limit him just to singles matches.